Just caught up with this week's Risk Business podcast, hosted by Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver.

At 24mins, Maria and Nate have a revealing discussion about what words like Probable, Possible, and Likely really mean.

It's Adam Kucharski's marvellous Substack article, Possibly a Serious Possibility, sparked the conversation.

In the article, Kucharski explores the work of Sherman Kent. Kent is a legendary CIA Analyst who was a pioneer in critical thinking and decision analysis. He's famous for highlighting the fundamental flaw in using vague language when expressing your uncertainty in a risk forecast.

Kent famously called these evasive terms, 'Lurking Weasels'.

Lurking weasels are words or phrases that are used to sound definitive and authoritative. But when you look at them closely, they're ways of avoiding decisions and dodging responsibility.

"What we consciously or subconsciously seek is an expression which conveys a definite meaning but at the same time either absolves us completely of the responsibility or makes the estimate at enough removes from ourselves as not to implicate us."
Sherman Kent

The world of tree risk management and assessment is littered with lurking weasels - or what we call Bafflegab.                   .

What Philip Tetlock (The Superforecasters guy) calls 'the illusion of communication'. Or 'vague verbiage'.

A recent standout 'lurking weasel' rising up our Tree Risk Bafflegab Charts is the National Tree Safety Group's 'Low Occupancy', in Common Sense Risk Management of Trees (2nd Ed).

More about that lurking weasel in a future post.

In the meantime - what tree risk lurking weasels have you come across?