Is a 1 in 2, or 50% chance of dying really just a 'Moderate Risk'?

According to the International Society of Arboriculture's TRAQ (Tree Risk Assessment Qualification) Matrices. The answer is, Yes!

If you've made it to Round 5 in a game of Russian Roulette, playing 'The Deer Hunter' rules (you don't spin the barrel between rounds). Your chance of dying is 1 in 2, or 50%.

TRAQ rates this a Moderate Risk.

Yes, seriously. A 50% chance of death is not a high enough risk for TRAQ to classify it as a High or Extreme Risk.

WTF is going on here?

How can something as extreme as half the population of your home town dying from tree failure in the next year merely be a Moderate Risk?

Want answers?

Come along to one of our Validator Training workshops where you'll explore this, and much more.

On the morning of Day 1, we take a deep dive into how tree risk is measured. How it's been done historically, and how it should be done. You'll sharpen your critical thinking skills, and get a strong understanding of what tree risk assessment is all about. We get hands-on, and examine how tree risk is measured by TRAQ, using words - and yes, even ordinal numbers.

In the meantime, you can easily work out how TRAQ rates a 50% chance of death a Moderate Risk, by looking at the Likelihood Matrix.

At Round 5, in a game of Russian Roulette, with The Deer Hunter rules. There are 2 chambers and 1 bullet.

The chances of the bullet firing in Round 5 is 1 in 2, or 50%.

A 1 in 2, or 50% chance is not high enough to reasonably be classed as Probable.

Just about everyone thinks Probable means more likely than not.

In other words, Probable means GREATER than 1 in 2, or 50%.*

The TRAQ Likelihood word that best fits a 1 in 2, or 50% chance is Possible.

Likelihood of Impacting the Target is High.

Likelihood of the bullet firing AND impacting the target is Somewhat Likely

Consequences is Severe.

So, a 1 in 2, or 50% chance of dying HAS to be a Moderate Risk.

*We've got a previous post about the Perceptions of Probability graphic called Dodging Decisions - Beware the 'Lurking Weasels' in Tree Risk Assessment